OBAMA VS McCAIN.....WHO WILL IT BE?

I've been a bit too nerdy about following election polls lately. This seems to be the landscape right now.

-Favoring Obama-California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Pennslyvania, All of New England, Maryland, Delaware, Illonois.

-Favoring McCain-Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, The entire South except for possibly Virginia and Florida, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennesee, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri.

-Too close to call-Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada

In this scenario, Obama would probably win. I think that barring an unusual October surprise, the states will vote sort of this way with Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado going to Obama and Indiana, Virginia, and Florida going to McCain. I wonder how accurate I am.

Debate over this topic would certainly be interesting.

Hi totoro,

I certainly like debating this topic. I have to agree on most of the states favoring Obama and McCain. However, I do think Ohio, the key swing state, will be going to McCain, and with it the election. On the other hand, I suspect Obama will be breaking the ice in the heretofore solid red South. Remember that Obama, a black candidate, beat Mrs. Clinton, a native Southerner, in the Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Florida primaries.

Obama has been making a fool of himself lately to the honest, impartial observer. When asked questions about his position on an issue, he dithers, walks the fence, and tries to weasel his way out of staking a clear position. McCain may be dead wrong on certain issues, but at least he always gives a straight answer--what he believes on those issues.

The race is getting to look uncannily similar to the race we saw four years ago: one candidate is smooth with vague issue positions, while the other is straighforward with his political territory clearly marked out for all to see. I'm no sociologist, but I do know that when people go to the polls, they want to know what to expect in the next four years. They don't want an inexperienced, question mark candidate who seems to be playing games and fanning the flames of his own personality cult. Being a genuine war veteran unlike Bush or Kerry, McCain isn't looking to impress anybody.

Of course, when I say these things, I am generalizing, and meaning no offense to you.

McCain's military record is a factor that I think should not be overlooked in Ohio. We not only have tremendous respect here for military veterans in general, (they're eligible for special license plates), but we also have a lot of veterans living here who are strong McCain supporters.

McCains "straight" answers have changed so often on EVERY issue, that I now call him "Flipper". I wish Obama wasn't so "nuanced", but I am generally satisfied with his positions except for a few...unlike Kucinich who I agreed with almost 100%.

I would never be personally offended if someone critiques a candidate that I like...even Kucincih. Thanks for being polite though.

How was Kerry not a genuine war veteran?

You MAY be right about Ohio. At this point, I think Obama will win Colorado and Virginia. I'm not sure about Nevada, and I am still favoring McCain for Indiana and Florida.

Obama has many detailed postions on how he would deal with lots of issues. Unfortunately, he doesn't often describe these in detail in his speeches. In fact, in researching both candidates, Obamas postions on many issues are much more clear than McCains.

McCain says he won't vote on his own immigration bill, changed his mind on "withdrawal on Iraq if the Iraq government wants it", offshore oil drilling, torture, tax cuts for the rich, and many many other issues...hence my new nickname "Flipper".

As I keep saying, McCain will be a 3rd term of Bush.

I STILL haven't seen a single McCain window sign, yard sign, or bumper stickers, but my boss says he's seen a few in the South Bay (Redondo Beach area).

I saw two McCain signs and no Obama signs when I was out driving a bit today. Problem with the McCain signs is they're so inconspicuous I barely noticed them. The Obama signs catch your eye better. True, I was driving through rural areas, but even in town Obama fervor seems to be waning.

I was just working in Riverside county and the Inland Empire for the last few days (not exactly bastions of liberalism) and still no McCain signs. In other news, the L.A times noted that prop 8 (the anti-gay marraige initiative) is failing miserably in the polls, ESPECIALLY among those under 30. This was in todays paper.

On another subject, If Colorado and New Mexico go for Obama, and the rest of my formula is correct, Obama gets it EVEN if McCain gets Ohio. There is a great site called Real Clear Politics. It has alot of state by state polls, and gives a map of what state is favoring what candidate. I based my estimates on not just the map, but my own projections based on what seem like trends. If you get a chance to see this site, let me know if you come to similar conclusions.